I’m very happy to announce that DiscountASP.NET was awarded the Editor’s Choice Award for 2010 in the category of “Best ASP.NET Hosting Company” by Mindcracker Network, the group behind c-sharpcorner.com. (see c-sharpcorner announcement here)
Mindcracker sent us a nice plaque. We are very honored for this recognition. A great way to start out a new year.
Takeshi Eto
VP Marketing and Business Development
A few of us from DiscountASP.NET braved the rain and traveled to the west-side of Los Angeles to attend The Web Hosting Industry Review‘s (TheWhir) Los Angeles Networking event at the Air Conditioned Supper Club on the evening of Jan. 21, 2010. TheWhir started these networking events in different cities last year and they have been growing in support and in attendance. I think these regional networking events for the hosting industry are a great idea and I support this program. Even with the rain, the turnout was good. (I tried taking some pictures but it was too dark for my phone.)
As usual at these events, they had giveaways. I don’t know, but DiscountASP.NET must be in the zone at these events or somehow the design, make, or cardstock weight of our business cards must give us some edge – because Mark Medina (Marketing, Director) won a $100 Amazon gift certificate courtesy of Enom. This is the second time he’s won at a TheWhir mixer – the first time was last year at the San Francisco mixer where he won an Apple TV.
And I won a bottle of wine at the last TheWhir Los Angeles mixer in June 2009 and this time around, I walked out with another bottle of wine courtesy of AutomaticSiteMap.
So I have to say again…networking does pay off!
Takeshi Eto
VP Marketing and Business Development
In this series thus far, I’ve been discussing the hype around the “Cloud” in terms of the Gartner Hype Cycle. In Part I, I introduced the Gartner Hype Cycle and in Part II I wanted to push discussion beyond trying to position the Cloud on the initial hype peak – to start looking at the other segments of the Gartner Hype Cycle. In this post, I thought I’d examine hype in a different way by looking at keyword search volumes.
One indicator of the buzz or hype of a particular technology can be examined by the search volume of keywords in popular search engines. Google has just this type of tool with their Google Trends. With this tool, you can compare different search terms against each other and view how the search volume changes over time. Google tracks the keywords use in the News as well.
Can you see hype peaks in search volumes?
I first tested to see if a “hype peak” is visible by using the keyword “web 2.0” as an example. The Google Trends report produced the chart below.
In this chart, the blue curve represents the Google search volume of the keyword “web 2.0”. You can see that the search volume reached a peak in 2007 and is decreasing now. Plotted alongside in red is the search volume for the keyword “cloud computing”. Here we witness the growing buzz surrounding “the Cloud” from 2007 and the search volume has reached about the same level as “web 2.0”. You can see in the News that the “Cloud” is being reported on more than “web 2.0”.
Cloud Computing vs. Virtualization
The Cloud and Virtualization are both hot topics of the day. So I ran the keywords “Cloud Computing” against “Virtualization” in Google Trends. In blue below, you see the same results of “Cloud Computing” search volume as above. In red, you see the results of search volume for the keyword “Virtualization”
You can see that “virtualization” has been discussed in the news and has general interest of the public since 2004 but the rise in buzz has been slow as compared to the rapid rise in hype surrounding the Cloud. You can see that even in the News, the term “Cloud Computing” is being used more than “Virtualization” in recent times.
Cloud Computing vs. Grid Computing vs. Utility Computing
The concept of “Cloud Computing” isn’t new. In some of its prior forms many referred to the same technology as “Grid Computing” and “Utility Computing”. So I ran a report against these terms and below is the result. In red is “Cloud Computing” and in blue is “Grid Computing” and in orange is “Utility Computing”.
You can see that the search volume for “Grid Computing” has been ongoing since prior to 2004, but not capturing the imagination like “Cloud Computing” (of course we don’t see data before 2004) And “Utility Computing” appears on the scene later in 2004, but doesn’t even register a blip when compared to Grid and Cloud computing. The Cloud is just sexier than a Grid or a Utility.
VPS and HyperV
Virtualization has enabled a new hosting segment of Virtual Private Servers or VPS hosting. And Microsoft has recently released its Windows 2008 HyperV server. So I overlaid these two keywords on top of the Cloud Computing vs. Virtualization plot. Here in blue is “Cloud Computing”, in red is “Virtualization”, in orange is “VPS”, and in green is “HyperV”.
You can see the public’s interest in “VPS” was high even before 2004 and has increased slightly in recent years, but “Cloud Computing” is surpassing the buzz of VPS. The plot also shows that the public search volume of “Virtualization” is slightly higher than “VPS”. “HyperV” appears on the scene in 2008, but the search volume is low compared to the other terms. And you can also see what is being reported on in the news – Virtualization and Cloud Computing – hands down.
Dedicated Server and Managed Hosting
If we now compare “Cloud Computing” against “Dedicated Server” and “Managed Hosting”, this is the result. In blue we have “Cloud Computing”, in red is “Dedicated Server” and in orange is “Managed Hosting”.
While “Dedicated Hosting” searches register prior to 2004, we see that it peaked in 2004 and the search volume is declining. “Managed Hosting” searches arise in 2004, but the search volume is not so high. In recent times, searches for “Cloud Computing” dominates in public search and in mention in News.
Fun with Google Trends: Is Cloud Computing just Water Vapor?
Larry Ellison, CEO of Oracle, went on a hilarious rant last year when he claimed the Cloud was nonsense and called it “water vapor.” So for fun I ran those two terms against each other. In blue you have “Cloud Computing” and in red you have “Water Vapor”.
Regardless of how Larry Ellison feels about it, the public and the news is buzzing with the Cloud. Water Vapor – not so much.
Final Thoughts
In this post I explored another tool that can be used to look at hype through the lens of what information the public is looking for in Google search. We did see a buzz peak for the keyword “web 2.0” but we only saw a general upward or downward trends for the other keywords we looked at. For the keyword searches on the decline, since we don’t have the data prior to 2004, we can’t see where they peaked. For those keyword searches on the rise, only time will tell when these terms will peak.
While the technology of virtualization is empowering businesses to host in Cloud-like environments, the hype around the Cloud is higher than searches for “virtualization” so it’s no wonder that you see daily press releases from vendors introducing some Cloud technology or service. Everyone is trying to capitalize on this buzz. So too are dedicated hosting and managed hosting companies. Many of them are launching some form of Cloud hosting services or renaming their products under the Cloud banner to capitalize on the hype.
But even though the Cloud is all the rage in the news and the unsexy “Web Hosting” is not being reported on much, even in its decline “Web Hosting” (red) is still commanding more searches than “Cloud Computing” (blue).
Takeshi Eto
VP Marketing and Business Development
About 5 or so hours ago, Bill Gates entered the world of twitter with his first post. He also re-joined Facebook. There’s a lot of buzz about it.
It was fascinating to see how fast people were following Bill Gates on twitter. I was curious so to get an idea of how fast his network was growing, I tracked the number of followers every minute for about 40 minutes or so. Here is the result. He already had over 30,000 followers when I started this at around 4:17pm Pacific Standard time. By 5pm, he had over 57,000 followers. He was adding about 622 followers per minute!
At the time of this post, he surpassed 67,000 followers.
Takeshi Eto
VP Marketing and Business Development
In Part I of this Hype Series, I introduced the Gartner Hype Cycle (below) which is a new visual tool used by analysts to describe technology adoption. I also presented the Emerging Technology Hype Cycle charts for the Gartner group’s 2008 and 2009 report. In 2008, Gartner believed that The Cloud was in the upward slope of the Technology Trigger section, while in 2009 they thought that the Cloud had progressed to the top of the Peak of Inflated Expectations.
During 2009, I heard many mentions of the Gartner Hype Cycle as it related to the Cloud. At the recent HostingCon 2009 in August, there were mentions of the Hype Cycle during a Cloud panel discussion. One speaker said that the Cloud was “clearly over the hype peak” but I don’t recall who the speaker was. (Perhaps someone can let me know.)
Rob Walters of the Data Protection and Storage in Marketing, Servers and Solutions of ThePlanet took a stab at positioning the Cloud and other hosting segments on the Hype Cycle in an April 2009 company blog post. Then more recently – in October 2009 during the cPanel conference – Todd Mitchell, GM Dedicated Servers and Global Services at ThePlanet, discussed the very same Hype curve in his presentation on Disruptive Technologies. ThePlanet argues that the Cloud is in the Technology Trigger section of the Hype Cycle while virtualization has passed over the Hype peak.
So from all these different perspectives – technology analysts, Cloud service providers, and dedicated and managed hosting providers – “The Cloud” resides on the hype cycle somewhere in area as circled in gray above. But for me, it is not so interesting to discuss whether the Cloud is over the hype peak or on its way to reach the hype peak. I think that there are two topics that are much more interesting and deserve more attention.
How Deep the Trough
As emerging technologies get over the peak, they move downward toward the Trough of Disillusionment. I have not heard of much discussion yet on how deep or shallow this trough will be. Let me provide a crude visual of what I mean by this in the next plot.
The Cloud service providers claim that everyone will be moving to the cloud abandoning their in-house IT services or their current outsourced hosting services. Some have predicted the decimation of the shared hosting enterprise within 5 years. Rackspace even started a nomoreservers.com microsite to support this vision. If this is the case, then the adoption should be fast, and the trough will be shallow.
However, on the flip side, if using the Cloud requires a lot of complex reworking of existing code, or if there are any more high-profile Cloud outages or catastrophic failures, the trough may be deep.
How Slow the Rise
The second topic that interests me is around how fast or slow Cloud Computing will mature during the Slope of Enlightenment. Let me again show a crude visual of what I am referring to below. The question here would be; how comfortable will users and businesses be in moving their IT to the Cloud? Gartner puts mass adoption of Cloud Computing 2-5 years away, according to the 2009 Hype Cycle report. Is this the right ballpark?
So let’s look at 2009 and some of the events that occurred with “the Cloud.”
– In the past year there have been many Cloud outages: RackSpace Cloud, Azure, Amazon EC2, Salesforce.com, Google, Sidekick, PayPal, and Twitter all had well publicized outages. How elastic and highly available is the Cloud? Even our payment gateway, Authorize.net had a major outage this year taking our ordering and billing system down along with all the other tens of thousands of vendors who use them for credit card processing.
– At the recent HostingCon 2009, Tier1 Research’s Phil Shih, Research Analyst for Mass-Market Hosting, during his presentation on “Following Web Hosting Trends” stated that their research is showing that the Cloud’s potential revenue projection is actually a lot less than what is being stated by the rest of the Cloud industry at large.
– Technology trend-watcher and author of the Strategic News Service, Mark Anderson, in his annual Ten Predictions for the new year, predicts that there will be a major Cloud catastrophe in 2010. If true, this would severely deepen the trough.
– A recent Forrester Research Cloud Computing Survey results show concerns about security of cloud environments top the reasons for businesses not moving to the Cloud.
– Oracle (owner of Sun and mySQL) CEO, Larry Ellison, went on and on at the Churchill Club in an amusing rant on how there is no such thing as Cloud and called it “water vapor” (see video here). He makes some good points though – a lot of what people are now calling Cloud service, is exactly what vendors have been doing for years and years. It’s just got a new hyped up name.
– On the flip side, Jeffrey M. Kaplan of ecommercetimes.com, lists many flash points of how fast Cloud Computing has evolved over 2009. For example, Salesforce.com surpassed $1 Billion in revenue, showing that the Cloud business model can work . . . extremely well. And this company does everything in the Cloud – not just provide SaaS services but runs their entire organization (HR, internal documents, etc.) using the Cloud.
– At PDC09, Microsoft announced the launch of Microsoft Azure (in January 2010) along with surprising partners like WordPress, and introduced a promising data access service, Microsoft Dallas.
– According to Gartner, worldwide cloud services revenue will surpass $56.3 billion in 2009, a 21.3% increase from 2008 and the market is expected to reach $150.1 billion in 2013.
– Federal, State and City governments are starting to leverage the Cloud. For example, Federal CIO Vivek Kundra championed the launch of apps.gov, to provide an easier way for agencies to acquire infrastructure and applications, including an online storefront where federal agencies can purchase hosted services.
What to make of all this? My opinion is that there is a shift happening here driven by innovations in computing power, virtualization, and software. But I think it’s more evolutionary than revolutionary. The adoption will be much slower than what analysts and Cloud services are projecting. I don’t think that entire hosting segments are going to disappear. I also think that there is a lot of “Cloud-washing” (similar to green-washing and maybe a future blog post topic) going on as vendors try to jump on the latest hype.
I’ve stated in my previous posts that the customer base for hosts will shift as the Cloud matures, but each hosting segment/niche will be used for the workload that best suits their hosting environment because no hosting segment will fit all the needs of all users. Our challenge as well as all other hosts, is to continue to innovate and identify the workloads that best suits our hosting platform and service the customers that choose our hosting platform well.
I’m not saying that I know what is going to happen in the future. Only time will tell. The purpose of this post is merely an attempt to refocus the discussion to look beyond the “hype peak”.
Takeshi Eto
VP Marketing and Business Development
This year went by really fast. I feel like I worked on the Top 10 list for 2008 just yesterday. That is not to say that we didn’t accomplish anything in 2009. It’s actually quite the opposite. Despite the horrible state of the economy, we continued forward with our goal of innovating, working closer with the .NET community, and participating in social media.
In 2009, we spent a lot of resources improving our back end infrastructure and doing a lot of non-customer facing stuff. To the customer they won’t “see” this type of work, but our hosting infrastructure is much improved. However, for these Top 10 blog lists I want to focus more on the customer facing stuff so I do apologize in advance to our staff who worked hard on the back end stuff.
10. We sponsored the Socal Code Camp 2009 and manned our first table at an event. We hope to do more of this in 2010 and meet customers and fellow developers.
9. We launched support for the IIS7 Failed Request Tracing Module along with enhancements in our control panel to manage the trace log file.
8. We gained a few more awards in 2009, including:
– We won the asp.netPRO 2009 Readers Choice Award for Best ASP.NET Hosting Services making this our 5th year in a row!
– We won the first ever Code Project Members Choice 2009 Award for Best ASP.NET Web Hosting Service!
7. We launched SQL 2008 Reporting Services as a new optional addon.
6. We launched MyLittleTools MyLittleAdmin SQL Web Manager for both SQL 2005 and SQL 2008.
5. We enhanced our Control Panel API with a SQL 2008 Backup API and a DNS Management API.
4. We launched support for Microsoft Web Deployment Tool v1 (MSDeploy) on our Windows 2008 hosting platform.
3. We launched a video resource site at DaspTV.com. A special thanks to Mark Wisecarver (wisemx) for producing very helpful video tutorials.
2. We maintained our social media presence through our blog, twitter and Facebook. Participating in social media does take time and resources, and continually producing compelling content is challenging. I think we’ve done a decent job at it. I hope you think so too. If you have any suggestions or have any feedback, please let us know.
1. We continued to offer the .NET community with an ASP.NET 4.0 Hosting Sandbox Program throughout the entire year and kept up to date with the new .NET framework 4 and MSDeploy releases. This is an open sandbox available to the public. Developers can get early experience with ASP.NET 4 and Visual Studio 2010, before it’s official release next year. We hope to continue to provide programs like this for the .NET community.
I also want to thank some new partners that are kindly offering special discounts on their products and services to our customers. More details on how to redeem discounts can be found in the Control Panel Marketplace. For more information on the partner’s products and services, please visit their web site.
– VisualWebGui – $50 discount on Visual WebGui Professional Studio
– GleamTech – 20% discount on file management software
– Falafel Software – 10% off on training for Sitefinity CMS and Telerik components.
Have a safe and happy holiday season everyone!
Takeshi Eto
VP Marketing and Business Development
With all the bombardment of news about Cloud Computing, no real agreed upon standard definition of what the Cloud is, practically every company launching some sort of Cloud service daily, and some predicting the death of shared hosting because of the Cloud, I thought I’d do a post on the topic of hype and the Cloud.
When discussing hype, most analysts will refer to the Gartner Hype Cycle as shown below.
Let’s go through the main sections of the hype cycle.
The first phase is the Technology Trigger. It’s the breakthrough of a new technology or product or product mix that creates interest and buzz. The visibility of the technology increases as the buzz increases, leading to the second phase called the Peak of Inflated Expectations. Here, the surrounding enthusiasm over the technology has created unrealistic expectations. Then the trajectory heads downward toward the third phase, the Trough of Disillusionment, due to the failure of the technology meeting its promise. The fourth phase is the Slope of Enlightenment, where those companies who persevere and continue to experiment come to understand the true benefit and practical uses of the technology. Then in the fifth phase, we have the Plateau of Productivity where the benefits of the technology has become widely known and accepted. At this point the technology has matured and/or has become stable.
Even though critics may bring up the fact that this is really a curve and not a true cycle, I think the hype cycle curve is a good visual tool. All technologies go through these phases and many of them fail as a product.
So now that you understand this hype cycle curve, where does Cloud Computing reside on it?
Well, according to Gartner, in their 2008 Hype Cycle report, Cloud Computing was in the upper part of the uptick toward the peak:
And the 2009 Gartner Hype Cycle report shows that Cloud computing has reached the top of the Peak of Inflated Expectations:
Gartner also projects that mainstream adoption is still 2-5 years away.
I’ll be discussing more stuff on hype in some other posts. Here, I wanted to just provide some background on the Gartner Hype Cycle and give some examples of what the analysts at the Gartner research group are thinking.
Takeshi Eto
VP Marketing and Business Development
DiscountASP.NET was the premiere sponsor for the Socal Code Camp held on the USC campus on November 21-22, 2009.
While we’ve been attending many events and conferences over the past several years, this was the first time we were manning a table at an event. I enjoyed meeting with many developers. We met several people who hosted with us and we got great feedback. We also met many developers and students interested in finding a future ASP.NET host.
Many people were rockin’ out to Rock Band, taking in a game of pool and/or darts, or just plain chillin’ at Casey’s Bar and Grill in downtown Los Angeles for the Saturday evening Geek party.
At the end of the event, there was the giveaway. I couldn’t believe the number of prizes that were being given out. It took about an hour to give all the prizes out.
You can find other links to some other picture galleries for this event at the LA Code Camp site.
A big thank you to the organizers for their hard work and to the speakers. And THANK YOU to all the attendees who took time out of their busy schedules to make this event a success. We enjoyed sponsoring this event and we hope to sponsor more in the future.
Takeshi Eto
VP Marketing and Business Development